Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy7y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 26, 12:50 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):
- [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows:
- The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q).
- Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins.
- Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars.
- The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
