PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 5:01 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
↓ $4.2098%
↓ $4.22100%
↑ $4.2441%
↓ $4.1043%
↓ $4.1410%
↑ $4.301%
↑ $4.321%
↑ $4.341%
↑ $4.361%
↑ $4.381%
↑ $4.401%
↓ $4.166%
↓ $4.1899%
↑ $4.2290%
↓ $4.0841%
↓ $4.1228%
↑ $4.281%
↑ $4.2643%
↓ $4.18Won
↓ $4.20Won
↓ $4.22Won
↓ $4.24Won
↓ $4.26Won
↓ $4.28Won
↑ $4.22Lost
↑ $4.24Lost
↑ $4.26Lost
↑ $4.28Lost
↑ $4.30Lost
↑ $4.32Lost
↑ $4.34Lost
↑ $4.36Lost
↑ $4.38Lost
↑ $4.40Lost
↓ $4.08Lost
↓ $4.10Lost
↓ $4.12Lost
↓ $4.14Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?
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KalshiHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS gasoline CPI for October
KalshiWill the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?
Manifold MarketsUSA Gold Visa program Multimarket - USA citizenship and passport marketification!
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from Monday, October 26, 2026 through Sunday, November 1, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row.
- Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price.
- If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used.
- If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used.