Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?
InflationQuarterlyCommodities1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 10, 26, 10:09 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
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LimitlessRules
Resolves YES if the daily national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, as published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (the "Today's AAA National Average" figure), is $4.500 or higher on ANY day from 2026-09-11 through 2026-11-02 inclusive.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is a touch question: one qualifying day at or above $4.500 is enough, and the price falling back afterwards does not matter.
- Oracle: the AAA national average shown at gasprices.aaa.com.
- If AAA stops publishing the figure, resolution falls back to the EIA weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for the same window.
- Reference values on 2026-09-10: today $4.2770, yesterday $4.2245, one week ago $4.1436, one month ago $4.0091, one year ago $3.1938.
Open markets
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- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%+5.0pt38%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above-4.0pt37%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms? resolve?
- Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the daily national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, as published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (the "Today's AAA National Average" figure), is $4.500 or higher on ANY day from 2026-09-11 through 2026-11-02 inclusive.