Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?
InflationDailyCommodities
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (98.2%)
Resolved: Nov 3, 2026, 5:12 AM
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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GeminiMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolves YES if the daily national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, as published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (the "Today's AAA National Average" figure), is $4.500 or higher on ANY day from 2026-09-11 through 2026-11-02 inclusive.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is a touch question: one qualifying day at or above $4.500 is enough, and the price falling back afterwards does not matter.
- Oracle: the AAA national average shown at gasprices.aaa.com.
- If AAA stops publishing the figure, resolution falls back to the EIA weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for the same window.
- Reference values on 2026-09-10: today $4.2770, yesterday $4.2245, one week ago $4.1436, one month ago $4.0091, one year ago $3.1938.
