Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOver $4.00 100%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
47
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 10:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on November 1 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will US diesel prices get in 2026?
KalshiUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
PolymarketPeak US National Debt before 2027?
PolymarketUS national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
LimitlessRules
Resolution criteria
- The national average for regular gasoline is tracked by AAA, which publishes weekly updates at gasprices.aaa.com.
- Each answer resolves YES if the national average price reaches or exceeds that threshold at any point during 2026, and NO if it does not.
- Resolution will be determined by the highest daily average reported by AAA for the year.
- As of March 19, 2026, the national average gas price was $3.81 per gallon, up from $3.53 on March 12.
- The recent spike was driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the national average up 60 cents in two weeks as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices surged to $119 per barrel.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — How high will US gas prices get in 2026? · Above $4.60 40%
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.7K
- 24h Vol
- $25.6K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-10.3pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+7.7pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.3pt3.1%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation US - Annual
- 3.4%+0.5pt42.1%
- 3.3%-2.0pt29.9%
- 3.5%-0.5pt13.1%
+9 more outcomes
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Egg prices up in August?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Over $4.00 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026? resolve?
- How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.