Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOver $4.00 100%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
51
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-9.2 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 10:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
KalshiUS Average Gas Price Is $4.750 or more on any day in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Average Gas Price Is $5.000 or more on any day in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The national average for regular gasoline is tracked by AAA, which publishes weekly updates at gasprices.aaa.com.
- Each answer resolves YES if the national average price reaches or exceeds that threshold at any point during 2026, and NO if it does not.
- Resolution will be determined by the highest daily average reported by AAA for the year.
- As of March 19, 2026, the national average gas price was $3.81 per gallon, up from $3.53 on March 12.
- The recent spike was driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the national average up 60 cents in two weeks as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices surged to $119 per barrel.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — How high will US gas prices get in 2026? · Above $4.60 39%
