Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 11, 2026, 3:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastOver $4.00 100%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 25, 26, 10:17 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Over $4.6051%
Compare venues· Over $4.00
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall90% match · verified | Medium | 43% | — | $12.7K | $584.9K | 4 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | yesterday |
Also available on Kalshi
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
1.0%5mo
-1.0%5%
-2.0%9%
+4.0%43%
+10 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$12.7K
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria
- The national average for regular gasoline is tracked by AAA, which publishes weekly updates at gasprices.aaa.com.
- Each answer resolves YES if the national average price reaches or exceeds that threshold at any point during 2026, and NO if it does not.
- Resolution will be determined by the highest daily average reported by AAA for the year.
- As of March 19, 2026, the national average gas price was $3.81 per gallon, up from $3.53 on March 12.
- The recent spike was driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the national average up 60 cents in two weeks as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices surged to $119 per barrel.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$70Jul 84d of dataJul 11
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Resolution criteria
- The national average for regular gasoline is tracked by AAA, which publishes weekly updates at gasprices.aaa.com.
- Each answer resolves YES if the national average price reaches or exceeds that threshold at any point during 2026, and NO if it does not.
- Resolution will be determined by the highest daily average reported by AAA for the year.
- As of March 19, 2026, the national average gas price was $3.81 per gallon, up from $3.53 on March 12.
- The recent spike was driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the national average up 60 cents in two weeks as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices surged to $119 per barrel.