Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
One-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 57%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 23, 11:34 PM UTCFeb 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.
- The condition that real GDP reaches a new peak level is to ensure that recovery from a recession does not trigger positive resolution.
- For example, if the GDP series was [1.0, 0.85, 1.02] this question would not resolve positively, because the greatest growth over the sequence was only 2% as measured from a prior peak.
- This question will rely on credible estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in case there is uncertainty over whether real GDP grew by at least 10%, will wait until a final report is obtained.
- If the BEA is not active during resolution, or does not publish a relevant report, another credible source will be chosen at my sole discretion.