Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
May 29, 25, 5:12 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 6:05 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a global pause is implemented that includes the largest AI training runs.
- The pause must be based on factors that correlate with the AI systems being more generally powerful or intelligent (for example by limiting the number of parameters or by significantly restricting the hardware that can be acquired to train these systems).
- A "global pause" is a regulation or agreement that includes at least the two leading countries in AI development capabilities at the time it is implemented (or the top labs from these countries).
- Regulations or agreements that are implemented and announced independently but are in effect at the same time would also be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
- Resolves N/A if there is no AGI and no pause before 2200.