Current community forecast
No 83%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 23, 3:29 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? resolve?
- Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.