Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GeopoliticsOne-OffAITech7y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6 to 24 months 36%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 10:54 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
