Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
EconomyDailyEquitiesMacro & EconomyTrade PolicyBusiness & Corporate3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 63.7%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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LimitlessRules
S&P 500 closes in previous years -
- December 31, 2023: 4769.83
- December 31, 2024: 5881.63 (2024 gain: 1111.80) December 31, 2025: 6845.50 (2025 gain: 963.87)
- The average gain in the last 2 years was 1037.835 points.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 gains more points in 2026 than it did on average in 2024 and 2025 (closing above 7883.335, rounding up), and resolves NO if it does not (closing below that number).
- The S&P 500 ended 2025 up 16.4%, following a gain of 23.3% in 2024.
