Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffEconomyMacro & EconomyFedMemecoinTrade PolicyChessChinaSportsEuropeUS Politics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.9%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 9:21 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
