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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will the US enter a recession in 2026?

EconomyMacro & EconomyUS Politics6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Yes 11.8%
Forecasters

26

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 days ago

Stale
Feb 12, 26, 9:21 AMJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Manifold Markets

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,417.72-2.50%EthereumETH$1,688.09-3.05%SolanaSOL$68.15-4.28%

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If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

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Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

$250
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US retail sales in June

US retail sales in June

$24.2
Above 0.4%: 45%KalshiKALSHI
US housing starts for June

US housing starts for June

$5.1
Above 1.250M: 66%KalshiKALSHI
South Africa retail sales in May

South Africa retail sales in May

$0.4
Above 0.0%: 57%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.0822-2.92%XRPXRP$1.12-4.12%

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Manifold Markets