If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
One-OffEconomyMacro & EconomyPoliticsElectionUS Politics3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91%
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223
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 22 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 24, 11:22 PM UTCFeb 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- Otherwise resolves No. I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule.
- (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
- Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.