If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
One-OffEconomyMacro & EconomyPoliticsElectionUS Politics4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
219
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Mar 11, 24, 11:22 PM UTCFeb 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- Otherwise resolves No. I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule.
- (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
- Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2027.
- How is If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.