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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold Markets

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

EconomyMacro & EconomyUS Politics7mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Yes 14.5%
Forecasters

218

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Mar 11, 24, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 27, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes15%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Manifold Markets

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,603.44-3.00%EthereumETH$1,695.04-3.20%SolanaSOL$68.33-4.95%

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Will the advance estimate of Q2 2026 US real GDP growth be at least 3.0%?

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Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

$22.1
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Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

$1K
Yes: 97.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US retail sales in June

US retail sales in June

$27.7
Above 0.4%: 46%KalshiKALSHI
US housing starts for June

US housing starts for June

$6
Above 1.250M: 66%KalshiKALSHI
South Africa retail sales in May

South Africa retail sales in May

$0.4
Above 0.0%: 57%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.0824-3.14%XRPXRP$1.13-4.55%

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Manifold Markets