KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 88%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.8
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 12, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME.
- Revisions to previously published values will not be considered.
- The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession.
- A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? resolve?
- Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.