Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
One-OffEconomyMacro & EconomyUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.2%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 10:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.