Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.7% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? resolve?

Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

How is Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.

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KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.1%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.2%98.5%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$660.4K

24h Vol

$19.1K

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No81%
• Yes-3.0pt19%

Total Vol

$795.8K

24h Vol

$16.5K

KALSHI

Core CPI in October

• Above 0.0%-12.0pt82.5%
• Above 0.1%+2.0pt79%
• Above 0.2%+1.0pt44.5%

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.0%98.5%
• Above 0.1%+2.0pt84.5%

POLYMARKET

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

• 1.0-2.0%+20.0pt64.7%
• 0-1.0%-17.2pt34.3%
• <0%-1.1pt1%

+6 more outcomes

KALSHI

Jobs numbers in October 2026?

• Above -25,00095%
• Above 10,000+6.0pt82%
• Above 0-4.0pt86.5%

• CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Unemployment in October
• US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
• CPI in December
• Core CPI in November
• Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
• CPI in November
• US recession by end of 2026?
• UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
• JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026
• Recession this year?