Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 26, 6:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.
- Current rate ~4.0%.
- Key risk factors: tariff-driven disruption, federal workforce reductions.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? resolve?
- Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.