Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingJun 4, 26, 4:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill US unemployment rate rise more than North Carolina unemployment rate in September?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExIf the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a seasonally adjusted monthly civilian unemployment rate (U-3) of 5.1% or higher for any month in the calendar year 2026.
- If no monthly rate in 2026 reaches 5.1% or higher, the market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source: The monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary.
- The historical series can also be tracked via FRED (UNRATE).
- Scope: Covers the 12 reference months of 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
