Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 4:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketUS unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unemployment rate hit more than 6% in any month of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a seasonally adjusted monthly civilian unemployment rate (U-3) of 5.1% or higher for any month in the calendar year 2026.
- If no monthly rate in 2026 reaches 5.1% or higher, the market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source: The monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary.
- The historical series can also be tracked via FRED (UNRATE).
- Scope: Covers the 12 reference months of 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? resolve?
- Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria