Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecasty ≥ 2.0% 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 6:29 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?
Manifold MarketsEuro area’s inflation rate in 2026
FutuurUS annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month.
- If the option with the highest rate reaches or exceeds 40%, I will add a new option that is .50 percentage points higher to ensure sufficient granularity.
- Because of the timeline we are on, the inflation report for a given month might be published late or not at all.
- Please adjust your prices accordingly.
- Late publications will qualify as long as they are published by the market end date of 02-01-2027.
- If no reports are published during the entire period, the market will resolve to NA for each option.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
- September Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - September 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- September Inflation China - Annual
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices y ≥ 2.0% at 100% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026? resolve?
- Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month.