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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

Inflation7mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
y ≥ 2.0% 100%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters

18

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Nov 20, 25, 6:29 PMFeb 1, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
y ≥ 2.0%
100%
Manifold Markets
y ≥ 2.5%
100%

Selected outcome

y ≥ 4.5%57%

Rules

Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month.

Manifold Markets
  • If the option with the highest rate reaches or exceeds 40%, I will add a new option that is .50 percentage points higher to ensure sufficient granularity.
  • Because of the timeline we are on, the inflation report for a given month might be published late or not at all.
  • Please adjust your prices accordingly.
  • Late publications will qualify as long as they are published by the market end date of 02-01-2027.
  • If no reports are published during the entire period, the market will resolve to NA for each option.

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Rules

Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month.

Manifold Markets
  • If the option with the highest rate reaches or exceeds 40%, I will add a new option that is .50 percentage points higher to ensure sufficient granularity.
  • Because of the timeline we are on, the inflation report for a given month might be published late or not at all.
  • Please adjust your prices accordingly.
  • Late publications will qualify as long as they are published by the market end date of 02-01-2027.
  • If no reports are published during the entire period, the market will resolve to NA for each option.