Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 11, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecasty ≥ 2.0% 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 days ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 6:29 PMFeb 1, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
100%
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
y ≥ 4.5%57%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month.
- If the option with the highest rate reaches or exceeds 40%, I will add a new option that is .50 percentage points higher to ensure sufficient granularity.
- Because of the timeline we are on, the inflation report for a given month might be published late or not at all.
- Please adjust your prices accordingly.
- Late publications will qualify as long as they are published by the market end date of 02-01-2027.
- If no reports are published during the entire period, the market will resolve to NA for each option.