PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
2.0-2.4% 73%+19.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
13.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
2
7d Change
+19.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 11:33 PMFeb 12, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
- The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
- For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change65.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt33.3%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt56%
- No-1.0pt44%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt43%
- September Meeting+1.0pt35%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $133.7K
- 24h Vol
- $10.6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.4K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
KALSHIHow high will inflation get this year?
- At least 4.5%-2.3pt23%
- At least 5.0%+0.9pt17%
- At least 5.5%14%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $451.2K
- Core PCE MoM - July 2026
- India Annual Inflation 2026
- US headline CPI inflation in December 2027
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI-U index in August
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
- US gasoline CPI for August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026?
- Polymarket prices 2.0-2.4% at 73% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026 resolve?
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on February 12, 2027.
- How is Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).