![Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fzzq%2Fajwghjn2s9.jpg&w=128&q=80)
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:18 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Republican president, >= 2%, <3% 49.9%Leader of 8 outcomes
Republican president, >= 2%, <3% 49.9%Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 9, 24, 4:05 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
- If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled.
- Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data.
- I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
- My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers.
- Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves.
