Current community forecast
No 75.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 26, 4:11 AM UTCDec 4, 26, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs.
- Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.
- A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES.
- A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO.
- Negative values resolve NO.
- Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? resolve?
- Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? is scheduled to resolve on December 4, 2026.
- How is Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs.