Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 26, 3:10 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US 2026 full year inflation (CPI) [20X]
Manifold MarketsADP employment change in Nov 2026?
KalshiADP employment change in Oct 2026?
KalshiMedicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed -382,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed -482,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
Full employment is when job openings exceed the number unemployed
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1J90z
- [link preview]
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.7K
- 24h Vol
- $59.4K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.6K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes88%
- No12%
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $10K
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- ISM Services PMI - September 2026
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026
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- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/7 - 9/13)
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US be at full employment in December 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the US be at full employment in December 2026? resolve?
- Will the US be at full employment in December 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US be at full employment in December 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Full employment is when job openings exceed the number unemployed