If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast0-1% 6.1%-0.7%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleSep 1, 24, 9:43 PMJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM
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Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
0-1%6%
Volume trend
$33Jul 152d of dataJul 16
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Richard Hanania has wrote a blog post claiming that he hates modern conservativism but wants Trump to win on the grounds of economic growth.
- Jeremiah Johnson is skeptical:
- This sounds like uncertainty over a future observable!
- If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, this will resolve by the annualised real GDP growth rate for the United States in the years 2025-2028, as given by the World Bank.
- Otherwise, this will resolve N/A.
- Corresponding question for Harris: