If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
2-3% 35.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
2-3% 35.5%Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Sep 1, 24, 9:43 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump be elected President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump be elected President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2028?
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2028
KalshiRules
Richard Hanania has wrote a blog post claiming that he hates modern conservativism but wants Trump to win on the grounds of economic growth.
- Jeremiah Johnson is skeptical:
- This sounds like uncertainty over a future observable!
- If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, this will resolve by the annualised real GDP growth rate for the United States in the years 2025-2028, as given by the World Bank.
- Otherwise, this will resolve N/A. Corresponding question for Harris: