If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.2%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:55 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown by which date?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketGovernment shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
KalshiRules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.