If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:55 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.