If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomyOne-OffUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.6%
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1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:05 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House.
