Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.4%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 5:47 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins.
- This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026.
- A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun.
- The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.