By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
One-OffAIUS PoliticsChina1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 24, 7:13 AM UTCDec 2, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Will resolve positive if there is some kind of agreement that:
- Substantially concerns the US and China (and potentially other countries as well)
- Concerns AI directly (such as by regulating compute)
- In the process of being created, somehow used AI in a mediating role in the negotiation process.
- I will somewhat handwavily operationalise this as: "Where both parties pass information to the same AI model, in a way where that information gets used by the model in the same inference run, tree rollout, or other similar closely related computational step".
- This last clause is a broad definition and can include things like: an AI chatbot being an actual mediator, some form of computational social choice model being involved, AI taking in both sides preferences and then being used to generate candidate agreements which humans then negotiate over, etc.
