PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15
Liquidity
$39K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.1% / 4.9%
Spread
19.5%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.8%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 7:14 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Large trades
$1.0k95.0%POLYMARKETNohellokitty11722d ago
POLYMARKETNohellokitty11722d agoVolume trend
$15Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.