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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. US x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?

US x China Military clash before 2027?

0.5% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsChina6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 8%+0.0%
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$251.1

Liquidity

$19.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

14.3%

Wide spread
7d Change

+1.5%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jan 14, 26, 7:15 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes8%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.