PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%+0.3pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$106.4
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.2% / 5.0%
Spread
1.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
13
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 7:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
Open markets
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- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US x China Military clash before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 96% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does US x China Military clash before 2027? resolve?
- US x China Military clash before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US x China Military clash before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.