KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before 2027 22%
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$12.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 7.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:White House
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.
- Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
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- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-0.7pt9%
+1 more outcomes
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+3 more outcomes
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- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+2.3pt100%
- October 31+2.9pt100%
- September 24+5.5pt100%
+3 more outcomes
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Ohio Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump recognize Taiwan??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 22% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will Trump recognize Taiwan? resolve?
- Will Trump recognize Taiwan? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump recognize Taiwan? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.