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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. US Politics
  3. Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

One-OffUS PoliticsChinaGeopolitics2y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 18%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$1.1

Liquidity

$100

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

13.0% / 18.0%

Spread

38.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 18, 24, 3:00 PMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jan 20, 202918%

Rules

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.