KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 28, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityBefore Jan 20, 2029 13%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$12.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 4:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 20275%
Volume trend
$87Jul 319d of dataJul 24
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If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
- Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.