U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
0.2 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopoliticsChinaEurope1y
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2027 · —
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Updated 11 minutes ago
May 28, 26, 7:41 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024, US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.
