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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

0.5% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%+0.0%
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$144.1

Liquidity

$22.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 15.0%

Spread

7.1%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-4.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 5, 25, 5:00 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
  • Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g.
  • If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
  • Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g.
  • If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).