Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
0.3 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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No 95%
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71 / 100
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$525
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$44.4K
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7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 4:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketWill a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurWill Brazil join NATO by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
