PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$31.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 4:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
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PolymarketIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
