Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
0.5% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%+0.0%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$17.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
22.2%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Nov 20, 25, 11:16 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Volume trend
$1.0kJul 221d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
- A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces.
- This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size).
- Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.