Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?
ChinaOne-Off13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 23, 7:40 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketWill the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any member of the US Armed Forces die in Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsChina-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRules
American Armed Forces: US Army, US Navy, US Air Force, US Marine Corps, US Coast Guard, US Space Force
- Chinese Armed Forces: People's Liberation Army Ground Force, People's Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army Air Force, People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force, People's Armed Police (including China Coast Guard), Militia of China (including the Maritime Militia)
- Resolves YES if it is clear that one side has directly caused a fatality in the other
- Please note that a member of one side's armed forces causing a 'civilian' (ie not a member of forces listed here) fatality will not result in a YES resolution by itself
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040? resolve?
- Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: American Armed Forces: US Army, US Navy, US Air Force, US Marine Corps, US Coast Guard, US Space Force