Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?
ChinaOne-Off13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 23, 7:40 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?
Manifold MarketsUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRules
American Armed Forces: US Army, US Navy, US Air Force, US Marine Corps, US Coast Guard, US Space Force
- Chinese Armed Forces: People's Liberation Army Ground Force, People's Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army Air Force, People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force, People's Armed Police (including China Coast Guard), Militia of China (including the Maritime Militia)
- Resolves YES if it is clear that one side has directly caused a fatality in the other
- Please note that a member of one side's armed forces causing a 'civilian' (ie not a member of forces listed here) fatality will not result in a YES resolution by itself