FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Bosnia and Herzegovina 7%Leader of 3 outcomes
Bosnia and Herzegovina 7%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityTraders
12
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts which of the listed countries will formally accede as full members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC.
- A country is considered to have joined NATO only if it completes the formal accession process and is officially recognized as a member state.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement by NATO confirming that the country has deposited its instrument of accession and has been accepted as a member.
- If NATO’s official confirmation is delayed, incomplete, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will consist of corroboration from major, reputable international news organizations reporting the formal completion of NATO membership.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive outcome over procedural technicalities, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.