Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:36 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWho will be the next country to join NATO?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any new country officially joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before January 1, 2027 (00:00 UTC).
- If no new country joins before this deadline, the market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, a country is considered to have officially joined NATO when it deposits its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the Government of the United States of America (the official depositary of the Treaty) in accordance with Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be NATO's official member countries page and official press releases from the NATO official website.
- Any country beyond the 32 existing member states that successfully completes accession and is listed as a full member before the deadline will trigger a YES resolution.