Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:36 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
PolymarketWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
PolymarketWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
PolymarketWill a new country join the European Union before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to join the European Union?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any new country officially joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before January 1, 2027 (00:00 UTC).
- If no new country joins before this deadline, the market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, a country is considered to have officially joined NATO when it deposits its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the Government of the United States of America (the official depositary of the Treaty) in accordance with Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be NATO's official member countries page and official press releases from the NATO official website.
- Any country beyond the 32 existing member states that successfully completes accession and is listed as a full member before the deadline will trigger a YES resolution.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? resolve?
- Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria