Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
0.5 pts (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%+0.5pt
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$62
Liquidity
$25.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.1% / 6.5%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-8.8 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 8:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
- Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
- The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.