PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilitySomaliland 20.7%-0.5ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$157.1K
Liquidity
$153.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.8% / 10.1%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+5.6 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:54 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Somaliland24%
Volume trend
$157.1kJul 228d of dataJul 29
Related Markets
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
$941.9KJuly 31: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$1.1MAugust 31: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$723.3KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
$121.2KBefore Aug 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Iranian regime be overthrown?
$2.6KYes: 7.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
- The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.