PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 1%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$453.6K
Liquidity
$472.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.6% / 0.7%
Spread
16.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 1:14 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes1%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 99% | — | $453.6K | $472.5K | 2 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets92% match · verified | — | 99% | — | — | — | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]
5d
99%
1%
Community forecast50 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.7k98.8%POLYMARKETNoMataty13d ago
POLYMARKETNoMataty13d ago$1.6k99.1%POLYMARKETNoAnnaWanna3d ago
POLYMARKETNoAnnaWanna3d ago$1.8k98.8%POLYMARKETNoMataty15d ago
POLYMARKETNoMataty15d ago$1.0k98.4%POLYMARKETNo0x7795…9a175d ago
POLYMARKETNo0x7795…9a175d ago$5.8k97.7%POLYMARKETNothird-eye6d ago
POLYMARKETNothird-eye6d ago$6.6k98.4%POLYMARKETNoTigerofthehood6d ago
POLYMARKETNoTigerofthehood6d ago$2.7k98.7%POLYMARKETNoNateRiver888d ago
POLYMARKETNoNateRiver888d ago$1.3k97.4%POLYMARKETNototalfeast12d ago
POLYMARKETNototalfeast12d agoVolume trend
$453.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.