PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yulia Navalnaya 11%Leader of 71 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.7K
Liquidity
$2.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Oct 16, 25, 10:30 PMOct 10, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yulia Navalnaya11%
Compare venues· Yulia Navalnaya
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 11% | +4pt | $8.7K | $2.4M | 22 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi75% match · verified | Medium | 7% | 0pt | $454.4 | $301.3K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
5mo
28%
11%
10%
+18 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$707.1K
24h Vol$454.4
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
- If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner.
- If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence.
- If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual.
- If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
- If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$9.5k95.0%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — Novtat10d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — Novtat10d ago$12.9k96.0%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — NoEnd12316d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — NoEnd12316d ago$1.3k95.0%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — NoJesusReturns202619d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — NoJesusReturns202619d ago$36.9k93.0%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — Nobeeply21d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — Nobeeply21d agoVolume trend
$8.7kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
- If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner.
- If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence.
- If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual.
- If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
- If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."