KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 9:38 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 9:16 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Donald Trump1%
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue3%
Save the Children7%
Yulia Navalnaya5%
Doctors Without Borders13%
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms15%
Mark Carney4%
Sara Al-Saqqa4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani1%
International Criminal Court3%
International Association of Judges (IAJ)2%
Vanessa Nakate5%
Pope Leo XIV1%
Minneapolis2%
International Criminal CourtLost
Donald TrumpLost
Yulia NavalnayaLost
Sudan’s Emergency Response RoomsLost
International Court of Justice (ICJ)Lost
Pope Leo XIVLost
MinneapolisLost
Mykola Kuleba / Save UkraineLost
International Space Station / ISS partnershipLost
Sviatlana TsikhanouskayaLost
Save the ChildrenLost
World Central Kitchen / José AndrésLost
Daria EgerevaLost
Committee to Protect JournalistsLost
Ilham TohtiLost
Aaja ChemnitzLost
UNRWALost
António GuterresLost
Francesca AlbaneseLost
Centre for Humanitarian DialogueLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nobel Foundation
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation.
- Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.