Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
1.4 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%+1.4pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$13.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.3% / 4.0%
Spread
1.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-4.8 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 9:43 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
- Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
- For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
- Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31? resolve?
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.