Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 25, 4:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- Any country that has formally joined the Abraham Accords (by signing the Abraham Accords Declaration or a bilateral normalization agreement under its framework) officially announces it is suspending or terminating participation in the Accords, or officially abrogates/suspends the relevant Israel normalization agreement.
- Evidence must be an official government statement or legal act, or confirmation by a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing government officials.
- Clarifications: Mere ambassador recalls, critical statements, trade freezes, or flight suspensions without an explicit suspension/termination/withdrawal do not count.
- If wording is ambiguous, resolution requires explicit language such as “suspend,” “terminate,” or “withdraw.” New countries that join before EOY 2026 are in scope; their withdrawal before the deadline counts.
- The Abraham Accords comprise a general declaration plus bilateral normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (Sept 2020), Morocco (Dec 2020), and a Sudan signature of the Accords Declaration (Jan 2021), though Sudan’s full bilateral normalization has lagged amid instability.
