Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92.2%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 10:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any nation that is not currently a member of the European Union (EU) officially joins the EU as a full member state on or before December 31, 2026 (23:59:59 UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Official accession requires the entry into force of the country's Accession Treaty, making it a full member.
- Completing accession negotiations, signing an accession treaty, or being granted candidate status will not suffice if the official date of full membership falls on or after January 1, 2027.
- The primary source of truth for resolution will be official publications and press releases from the Council of the European Union and the list of member states maintained on the official European Union portal.