PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 37%+2.0pt
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$142.9
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 13.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-15.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 12:09 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?
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Manifold MarketsWill a new country join the European Union before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement enter into force?
KalshiRules
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all.
- The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, or Pakistan formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by which date? resolve?
- Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all.