PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
2027 · —
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Stored reference
2027 34%Leader of 3 outcomes
2027 34%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$805.3
Liquidity
$73.7K
High liquidityOpen interest
$13.4K
Bid / Ask
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2027Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:06 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia and Ukraine agree to stop mutual attacks on energy targets for at least a week by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Zelenskyy and Putin agree to engage in single combat to decide the fate of Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
- The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty.