Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 9%
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$46.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 9:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
- If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
