Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
0.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 12%+0.5%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.5K
Liquidity
$54.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 13.0%
Spread
18.2%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.5%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 9:39 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December12%
Volume trend
$4.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
- If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.