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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 16%
Market quality

72 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$109.5

Liquidity

$34.2K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 16.0%

Spread

6.7%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-2.0%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Nov 13, 25, 9:46 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes16%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
  • If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
  • If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.