Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 6:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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December 31, 2027 · —
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Stored reference
December 31, 2027 39%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31, 2027 39%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$884.8
Liquidity
$78.9K
High liquidityOpen interest
$225K
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December 31, 2027Spread
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7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingNov 13, 25, 9:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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August 31, 2026Lost
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Market depth · December 31, 2027
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
- If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
