Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 4:16 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Under the 28-point peace plan devised by the United States in November 2025:
- Russia would have withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast;
- Ukraine would have withdrawn from Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast; and
- control of Kherson Oblast and Zaporozhye Oblast would have been 'frozen' along the line of contact.
- At the end of November 2025, Russia controlled approximately 20,522 square kilometres of Kherson Oblast and approximately 20,336 square kilometres of Zaporozhye Oblast.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan? resolve?
- Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Under the 28-point peace plan devised by the United States in November 2025: