Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingJul 6, 26, 4:16 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Under the 28-point peace plan devised by the United States in November 2025:
- Russia would have withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast;
- Ukraine would have withdrawn from Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast; and
- control of Kherson Oblast and Zaporozhye Oblast would have been 'frozen' along the line of contact.
- At the end of November 2025, Russia controlled approximately 20,522 square kilometres of Kherson Oblast and approximately 20,336 square kilometres of Zaporozhye Oblast.
- Resolution criteria
