Will it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?
EuropeOne-OffRegulationSociety & Culture9y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 78.9%
No 78.9%Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 26, 9:37 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2036, at least 5 of these 9 countries (US, UK, France, Australia, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea) have legally enforceable restrictions prohibiting the provision or enabling of ordinary adult-level phone access for children under 16.
- An adult phone is a general-purpose personal communication device operating with the access privileges ordinarily available to adults, without additional child-specific restrictions.
- The reference point is a standard, unsupervised iPhone, Android, or GrapheneOS smartphone in 2026, with general internet access, third-party apps, social media, and messaging.
- A child phone is an equivalent device operating under additional, legally mandated age-based restrictions.
- Adult and child phones may use identical hardware, with the distinction existing entirely in software, accounts, permissions, or other technical controls.
- Crucially, "unrestricted" is relative to what adults are legally and practically permitted to use at the time, not an absolute requirement to preserve 2026 capabilities.