PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$7.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
26
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 24, 25, 5:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketUkraine peace referendum scheduled by which date?
PolymarketUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
PolymarketWill Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo?
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo resolve?
- Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: