Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Feb 9, 26, 3:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Germany attends a summit or formal negotiation meeting with Russia regarding Ukraine peace that explicitly excludes the United States before January 1, 2027.
- The meeting must be officially announced or documented by German government sources, Russian government sources, or major international news outlets.
- Bilateral meetings between Germany and Russia do not count; the summit must involve Ukraine as a party or subject of discussion.
- The US exclusion must be explicit—meetings where the US simply does not participate do not qualify.
- Resolution will be determined by official government statements, press releases, or credible reporting from major news organizations.
