Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States government and the government of the People's Republic of China issue a joint, public statement or sign a formal agreement establishing a bilateral arrangement, framework, or pact specifically concerning artificial intelligence safety, governance, or cooperation before January 1, 2027.
- The arrangement must be explicitly identified as being between the US and China.
- Unilateral policies, separate statements made at the same event, or agreements made only through multilateral organizations (such as the UN or G20) without a distinct bilateral component do not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House (whitehouse.gov) or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (fmprc.gov.cn).
