Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States government and the government of the People's Republic of China issue a joint, public statement or sign a formal agreement establishing a bilateral arrangement, framework, or pact specifically concerning artificial intelligence safety, governance, or cooperation before January 1, 2027.
- The arrangement must be explicitly identified as being between the US and China.
- Unilateral policies, separate statements made at the same event, or agreements made only through multilateral organizations (such as the UN or G20) without a distinct bilateral component do not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House (whitehouse.gov) or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (fmprc.gov.cn).
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027? resolve?
- US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This description was generated by AI.